Bitcoin Poised for Next Breakout as Long-Term Holders Accumulate at $100K

• Bitcoin long-term holders are accumulating again near $100K and this often signals a coming price surge.
• Technical indicators like MACD and RSI show strong bullish momentum is building.
• Senator Lummis wants Bitcoin added to U.S. reserves and supports converting government assets into BTC.

The long/short-term supply of Bitcoin holders is replicating a similar cycle that has occurred in past bull markets, and it can be interpreted that the market is gearing up for another run. This indicator that measures the power of long-term holders (LTH) relative to short-term holders (STH) has spiked in the recent weeks, and the trend is similar to previous build-up periods at 28K and 60K.

In the previous two cycles, the accumulation of LTH presaged a dramatic price rise. The ratio peaked at 28K in two months, providing a basis to move towards 60K. Equally, a second accumulation zone at $60K was ahead of the surge to $100K. Bitcoin is trading around 107K today, and according to on-chain data, long-term holder dominance again increased dramatically.

CryptoQuant data indicates that the LTH/STH balance is growing beyond 4.2, and its 30-day change is close to 100%. Analysts believe that, with the continuation of such behaviour, a 4-8 week span of sideways action will likely precede a bullish breakout. A conservative ×1.6 multiplier on the current price implies a potential rally toward the $160K level.

MACD Crossover and Bull Flag Reinforce Bullish Outlook

Technical charts offer additional support. A bull flag pattern on the Bitcoin daily chart displayed in the TradingView chart is confirmed by the bullish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The MACD line crossed through the signal line at 148 vs. 79, indicating upward movement.

Bullish sentiment is also supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At a current level of 57.34, it has more upside potential before it can reach overbought levels. The Bollinger Bands imply a directional momentum and increasing volatility with the Bitcoin trading above the mid-band (105,898).

Meanwhile, Bitcoin price has reclaimed $107,800, with support forming at $101,362 and resistance near $110,435. If the price closes above $108,000 with volume, bulls may attempt to retest $112,000 in the short term.

Network Activity Cools, But Macro Narrative Heats Up

Despite the bullish indicators, Bitcoin’s active addresses have declined steadily since late 2024. The latest count is 928,470, down from over 1.2 million in early 2024. This divergence between price and user activity may suggest a concentration of holdings among institutional or long-term participants rather than retail-driven growth.

On the geopolitical front, Bitcoin’s positioning as a macro reserve asset gained momentum after U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly advocated for its inclusion in national reserves. Speaking at the 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit, she urged the U.S. Treasury to turn inefficient government assets into Bitcoin, saying that it is a financial instrument with the potential to safeguard the strength of the American state economy.

The Wyoming senator also recently revealed that top officials of the U.S. military openly support the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, perceiving it as a geopolitical benefit. Her advocacy follows President Donald Trump’s March 6 executive order, which initiated the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), which puts all the BTC seized by the government as part of criminal forfeiture proceedings under its custodian control.